Oh Baseball How I’ve Missed You. You Too Red Sox

[Ring Ring, Ring Ring]

Baseball: Hello

Gideon: I’ve had some second thoughts, and realized I would like to write about you again, if that’s ok?

Baseball:  Well, I guess so.  I have just finished up three of the most trade and signing packed days of the year.  I’m sure you can find something in there.

Gideon: Yeah, that’s what I was thinking too…

So that’s how we end up here; I’m taking it slow in rekindling things with baseball, but just couldn’t resist the urge to touch on the Redsox recent move.  In a transaction eerily similar to last season’ s AJ Burnett signing by the Yankees, the Sox bring John Lackey to town for 5 years at just over $80mm.  My first gut reaction was ‘cool, a number 3

On his way out of town? I hope not, but I like the creative thinking.

pitcher.’  But after thinking on it for a few minutes it made me ask the fairly obvious question of who is the odd man out in the rotation?  One of the deepest rotations in the league just became that much deeper as the Red Sox have7 – 9 legitimate options to start a significant number of games this season.  The mainstays: Josh Beckett, John Lester, John Lackey, and Tim Wakefield are joined by Daisuke Matsuzaka and Clay Buchholz, as well as the newly acquired Boof Bonser (recovering from injury), and the other youngsters Michael Bowden and Junichi Tazawa.  The top four, as long as they are healthy, will remain in the rotation, that’s almost assured.  Dice-K needs to bounce back from his miserable 2009, while Buchholz still needs to prove he can string together several months of quality pitching, though he looked awfully strong over the last 2 months of last season.  Bonser still needs to fully recover and regain his form if he even wants a spot in the rotation.  Its entirely likely that Bowden starts the season in the bullpen, however Bowden is a far better talent than the fourth or fifth out of the bullpen type.  Finally, Tazawa is likely headed back to AAA, though his late season work showed he is not terribly far from being able to play at the big league level.  As always injuries will derail some of the plans, but clearly decisions and transactions need to occur.  Add to that the realization that the team still has a wide open corner infield position, and clearly moves need to be made.

Trade one or more of the youngsters to fill the open bat?  Send the youngsters back to the minors for a half season and see a.) what injuries plague the team and b.) what players are available on the trade market?  Does Theo Epstein realize that Dice-K is cooked and the rotation situation is not nearly as packed as it may appear?  The possibilities are numerous.

Joe Sheehan has an interesting take over at Baseball Prospectus where he suggests that its possible Lackey was acquired to make Beckett expendable.  The idea would be to build a three team deal around Beckett leaving town with an Adrian Gonzalez type coming to Boston.  The third team would get Beckett and some prospects would move to make it work for the Padres.  Mets? Cubs? Brewers?  All of those teams want to win in a hurry and thus may be motivated to make such a deal.  While I like Beckett’s skills and demeanor in Boston’s media landscape, especially at his reasonable price point of $12mm/year, I also like Sheehan’s thinking.  Trading Beckett or some other major league talent, if true, could solve a few of Boston’s problems at once.

My guess is that the Redsox aren’t willing to move neither Buchholz nor Bowden for what teams are offering and believe that they are more capable of filling their open infield spot by acquiring more pitching and then making a trade, likely major league talent, to fill the spot.  Am I particularly excited by signing Lackey for 5 years and $80+mm?  Not really.  Am I excited by the idea of improving the team through some creative thinking and not moving Buchholz?  Yes.  That’s the type of strategery that allows the Red Sox to continuously compete for a playoff spot year in and year out.   That’s what I like.