Ten Steps To A Redskins Recovery

Today was the first in quite a while that I didn’t throw on my typical Clinton Portis #26 Washington Redskins jersey early Sunday morning and stay within eyeshot of the TV for an entire afternoon.  Last week, with the Redskins on a bye week that couldn’t have come sooner, I felt like my life was a little less stressful.  Sunday was a day to enjoy good football, instead of throw my hat around the room and swear off a team that I’ve tied my emotions to for so many years.  This week, I watched the game, but tried to take it easy.  It’s obvious that these Redskins are not a very good team, and probably quite a few years from being something that resembles one.

The NFL is a funny beast – in general, the margin of error is relatively small, although this year’s version seems to have many more pretty bad teams than pretty good teams.  Most years, I tend to believe that you can pin a team at a win total plus-or-minus two wins with 95% confidence.  This is obviously a wide spread; wider, probably, than most other professional sports leagues.  There tends to be such a significant advantage when playing at home and, for the most part, teams in the middle 80% of the league aren’t much better or worse than each other.  Better teams – through guts, luck, or something else – will win a few more games.  Worse teams will fall short, often by the margin of just a few games lost by a touchdown or less.

The best teams fall into the 11-12 win category.  At best, they’ll be 13-3 or maybe even 14-2.  At worst, 9-10 wins and a likely playoff berth.  Teams at the very bottom of the league can be estimated with 95-ish percent confidence to win about 3 games.  Again, at best, they’re 5-11.  At worst, 1-15. 

Heading into 2009 (calling me foolish would be spot-on, in hindsight), I put the Redskins at the higher end of that middle 80%, with about nine +/- two wins.  An unlucky year, and they would be 7-9, outside the playoffs and looking in, with a new coach and quarterback for 2010.  If I was correct and they finished 9-7, the Redskins are in the back end of the playoff hunt in a tough NFC East and the future(s) of the latter portions of my last statement are up-for-debate.  On the off-chance that things went their way – not once but several times - the team is 11-5 and competing to win the division.  I was way off.  This team sucks.

The theory holds, I believe, and I might delve into that topic sometime in the future.  But for now, a 10-step program to a Redskins recovery.

Step One: Fire Vinny Cerrato.  This should have happened long ago, if not before the embarrassment of Week 6.  If Vinny’s title is accurate, then he’s been in charge of player personnel during an era with some of the worst player personnel decisions in the history of the NFL.  Trading three draft picks for T.J. Duckett.  Another couple for Jason Taylor’s long and distinguished career in Washington.  Not resigning Antonio Pierce, just one year before the cracks of a linebacker corps with little depth (and talent in coverage) began to show.  Using a trio of valuable second round draft picks on a young receiver, a gimpy receiver, and a tight end who can supposedly catch (haven’t seen much of it until last week) but has no idea how to pass block.  Waiving Ryan Clark, who was promptly signed by the Steelers and is considered by many to be the most underrated safety in the NFL.  The list could go until next Monday.  I’ll leave it at that.  Bottom line – Fire Vinny.

Step Two: Respectfully move forward from the Jim Zorn years.  Don’t do it like jerks – doing so only further hurts your chances to hire a talented coach in the future and isn’t warranted, either.  You took a guy who was supposed to make his next logical career move to offensive coordinator and made him a head coach.  He’s a decent guy who you have helped label the scapegoat for problems far beyond him.  After moving on, start a nationwide seach for a player personnel guy to replace Vinny, make it well-known that he’s in-charge of all football decisions, then start calling Holmgren, Shanahan, and Cowher.  See what they have to say.  They might not be the answers, and probably won’t want to be.  But you never know.  Oh, and see what Joe Gibbs says, too.  He knows this franchise and its inner-working better than most and might be willing to lend a few tips based on widely contrasting experiences 15 years apart in Washington. 

Step Three: Danny, for the love of all things good and pure, move away from football operations.  This isn’t a fantasy team.  George Steinbrenner learned this lesson in the mid-1980s after hiring and firing Billy Martin at least a half dozen times.  Let the football people make football decisions.  Contribute as you must, and provide the resources for your football people to be successful.  And if you can’t do this, then sell the team.  The Redskins are a storied franchise and certainly a lucrative one.  But they may not continue to be if fans can barely stomach watching their games and would rather sit on the couch and flip back-and-forth with the CBS game then spend Sunday on the road back-and-forth to FedEx Field.

Step Four: Respectfully move forward from the Jason Campbell years (see Step Two).  We could talk well into the night on whether this impotence is Jason’s fault, or that of a horrible and injury-depleted offensive line, or that of a myriad of offensive coordinators, or that of something else entirely.  Like Zorns handcuffed revoke of playcalling duties, Campbell handled the courting of Jay Cutler and Mark Sanchez pretty gracefully.  He may not be much more than a back-up in the NFL; or, knowing the Redskins, he might go elsewhere and have a solid ten-year, post-Redskins career.  But don’t make it harder on yourselves with a messy, public breakup.  Draft a quarterback – but not necessarily in the first round (!) and wish Jason good luck. 

Step Five: Lever up on draft picks, as best you can.  It’s no secret around the NFL that Redskins contracts are a tough pill for any other team to swallow.  But there are a few gems on the current team that: 1) Don’t fit in ideally with future plans; and 2) Have reasonable contracts and enough value to be attractive to another team.  An example is Mike Sellers.  See if you can get a fourth-round pick for him.  As much as I hate to say it, same goes for Santana Moss, Cornelius Griffin and London Fletcher.  See if you can’t squeeze a third-round pick out of a contender.  If not, no worries – money isn’t really an issue in Washington and the salary cap might not be an issue in 2010.  But not trying continues the disjustice that has plagued this franchise for many years.  Draft picks, particularly outside of the first-round, are cheap.  First day picks are expected to be NFL starters without the right to free agency for at least four years.  Use this time period to develop players and identify who is part of your future, and who isn’t.  Hopefully your new player personnel guru does a decent job at this and most picks are part of your future.

Step Six: Sign/trade for a veteran quarterback.  Unfortunately there aren’t many players like this in the 2010 free agent class.  The goal for the veteran quarterback is to have him start for 1-2 years, all the while mentoring a young quarterback acquired via the draft.  Show him the ropes.  Get him comfortable.  Make it a positive relationship.  As much as it pains me, what about Jake Delhomme?  He’s 34 already with some solid experience.  Actually, maybe not Jake.  We don’t want our future QB’s first lesson to be the best approach to throwing interceptions in a playoff game.  I’m only saying this because the other free agent who fits the criteria is Charlie Batch.  Maybe another year with Todd Collins fits the bill.  Otherwise, an entirely different approach is to trade for a guy like Matt Leinart with your third-round pick and give him another start elsewhere.

Step Seven: Draft a young quarterback, but don’t promise him that he will start.  Sure, there have been plenty of successes with first-year quarterbacks over the last few years.  But I’d rather keep him on the bench for at least a year, then start him in 2011 (assuming no injuries).  Don’t take the typical Redskins approach and reach to draft Sam Bradford just months after his second shoulder surgery.  If he’s available in the fourth, take him.  No earlier.  And don’t stretch to take the quarterback of the future with your first pick unless he really is the quarterback of the future.  There are plenty of other uses for that pick. 

Step Eight: Find a new left tackle (and right guard, center, right tackle).  The priority is left tackle, assuming a right-handed QB.  Whether via the draft (preferred approach, even if it requires using the first-round pick) or signing a guy like Winston Justice or Eric Winston.  Chris Samuels was a great Redskin, but pending tests this offseason, his career is probably over.  You could make the argument that left tackle is the most important position on the field, and it’s a void that needs to be filled quickly.  A bit of money toward Deuce Lutui at right tackle and anybody but Casey Rabach at center would also be a good investment.  If I had a dime every time I saw a play where Rabach did not hit a single player on the opposing defense, I’d have at least ten dollars.  That’s a lot of plays in the NFL.  He’s awful.

Step Nine: Start discussions with the District of Columbia to move the team back to Washington.  Landover, Maryland doesn’t count.  Jack Kent Cooke put a significant amount of his personal fortune into Jack Kent Cooke Stadium, later FedEx Field (Danny promptly renamed it), but the Redskins future should be inside the District.  Work out a deal where D.C. United moves to a new stadium in Southeast, then demolish RFK Stadium and rebuilt a new stadium for the Redskins.  Work with the city to overcome trepidation following the public investment in Nationals Park and secure some public funding.  But if you have to fund much of it yourself, Danny, then so be it.  Bring the team back to DC. 

Step Ten: Set expectations with fans that recovery is a 2-4 year strategy.  If you’re up front with fans, they will support you.  Tell them that you’ve been running the team unsuccessfully over the last few years, think you know why, and are willing to make the changes to ensure a winning team in the future.  Start a wide marketing campaign to keep fans abreast of the team’s new strategy.  Engage the fan base in supporting new faces at quarterback and left tackle.  Don’t let people expect a Super Bowl next season, or the one after that.  But tell them that you do expect one within four years and they should do the same. 

That’s about all I have right now.  I’m sure there are steps or actions that I have not included or missed.  Please pass them along.  Happy to put this into Microsoft Project and send along to Danny & Company, if even wrapped around a brick lobbed through the window of his limo.