Wake Me Up When September Ends

August is supposed to be the Dawg-Days of the MLB baseball season, while September is usual full of excitement around playoff races and MVP & Cy Young awards.  Less two weeks left in the season, there remains very little to be decided.  As a result, the last two weeks are shaping up to be pretty uneventful.  According to ESPN’s playoff percentages, 8 teams have 75% or greater likelihood of making the playoffs: NYY (100%), BOS (99.9%), DET (78%), LAA (99%), PHI (99.8%), STL (99.9%), LAD (99.9%), COL (91%).  The only race closer than 4.5 games is the AL Central where the Tigers lead the Twins by 3 games.

The individual races SHOULD be equally boring.  The intrigue will come in how wrong the baseball writers vote and how badly they bungle the selections.  The AL Cy Young options should start and end with Zack Greinke.  He has been far superior to any other pitcher in the AL by leaps and bounds.  He leads the league in VORP (at 80), followed by King Felix (68.4) and Sabathia (59.5).  Sabathia has all of the makings of the winner, but hasn’t been nearly as good as young Greinke.  Sabathia has 18 wins and does lead the league in IP at 220.  Otherwise, Greinke has him beat in every category: while he has pitched 10 less innings, he has more k/9 IP, less BB/9 IP, less h/9 IP, and less HR/9 IP.  The writers love wins, but given the pitcher has so little control over Wins, Greinke clearly deserves to win as he has been a far superior pitchers.

A quick update: Back in early May I commented on Zack Greinke’s absurd start.   I tried to estimate where he may realistically end the season stat-wise, and projected a line of: 20-7 with a 3.21 ERA.  I had assumed he’d win half of his remaining outings and lose 25%.  He currently sits at 14-8 with a 2.14 ERA.  Even though his ERA was far superior to the 7IP, 3ER per outing I had used to project his stats, his team repeatedly failed to support him.  On 9 occasions he gave up 2 ER or less and didn’t get a win.  He shouldn’t be penalized in Cy Young voting because his team was miserable.

The NL Cy Young Race could hold a touch more intrigue as Adam Wainwright has the 18 wins, along with excellent peripherals and leading his team to the playoffs, while Lincecum has been a touch better, but it seems his squad will come up short.  Lincecum leads the league in VORP in addition to besting Wainwright in every stat across the board.  While the AL race should be a done deal, the NL race could come down to how each pitcher performs over their last few outings.  Will the Giants shut Lincecum down?  Will his recent back injuries slow him down?  Alternatively, the Cardinals may skip Wainwright as they prep for their playoff rotation.  The rigfht choice at this point is Lincecum, we’ll see if the writers get it right.

The MVP races aren’t even worth discussing, though time will tell if the writers mess up the AL voting.  Pujols will win the NL MVP, as he should.  Hanley Ramirez should be second and has had a stellar season, but if pales in compares to The Machine.  In the AL, Joe Mauer’s season has not received nearly the attention it deserves, as it has been historic.  Baseball Prospectus broke it down as only they can, but the Cliffs Notes version, if one had existed, would tell you its been one of the best 3 seasons by a catcher in the last 60 years, if not ever.  A .373 batting average from a catcher that plays above average defense is astounding.  His VORP is 40% more than the second best (Jeter), even though Mauer missed the first month of the season.  he has packed a great season into 5/6 of a season.  If the Twins somehow snag a playoff spot from the Tigers, he will win.  If not, I could see Jeter of Teixeira snagging an undeserved MVP award.

So there it is.  Not a ton of drama left.  We’ve been too spoiled over the last decade with close races (read: Phillies ‘07, ‘08, Rockies ‘07, Brewers ‘08 to name a few in the last two years) and individual records (read: Bonds ‘01-’05, KRod ‘08, etc.).  Its just not meant to be this year.  Enjoy the lull before the playoffs take over.