CubicleGM ACC Preview

Let’s not let a tough first weekend for the ACC fool us – except for in a few select instances.  The new ACC certainly hasn’t proven to be the “powerhouse” football conference predicted several years ago when Miami and Virginia Tech finally joined.  But it is a conference that will be very competitive nationally at the top and should get better as the year proceeds.  The problem being that in college football, slow starts don’t matter much – people have too quickly moved to the teams that started hot to worry about how much better you are than in August.

Three (Four) Best Teams:

We’ll give you four teams across the two divisions to watch.  The ACC Coastal looks to far and away be the better division in 2009, but the ACC Atlantic has a stake in the championship game, and therefore the BCS berth, no matter what happens.  I’d venture this could be a year like 2005, when Florida State fumbled in to the championship game from the Atlantic Division at 8-4 to play a 10-2 Virginia Tech team in the first “Dr. Pepper ACC Championship Game”.

Virginia Tech: The Hokies took their lumps in Week 1 against Alabama, an effort reflected in the top-25 poll this week.  If you’d asked me two weeks ago, I’d have told you Tech would likely be in the mix for the national championship.  I still think they are the favorite to win the ACC, but VATECH faces a tough schedule and recent evidence that Tyrod Taylor is at least another year away from figuring out what kind of quarterback he will be.  Combine that with a tough midseason schedule and you’re looking at a team that will finish 9-3 with an upside of 10-2.  The second loss?  North Carolina (at home) on October 29.

North Carolina: In my mind, the most likely team to challenge the Hokies in the Coastal will be the Tarheels.  Feels kind of funny to write that, but Butch Davis has installed a talented core that includes a quietly productive running back in Shaun Draughn, a first-do-no-harm, experience QB in T.J. Yates and a quick, confident, and talented defense that couldn’t have a better coach in Davis.  I’d bet this is a team reminiscent of Davis’s return to the NFL in 2001 with the Browns, led by an aggressive defense that might set a record for takeaways down in Chapel Hill and supplemented by just enough offense to keep the Tarheels ahead of just about every team they play.  The only other team in the ACC Coastal with a chance of picking off Virginia Tech is Georgia Tech, who sport an explosive and proven combo under center (Josh Nesbitt) and in the backfield (2008 ACC Player of the Year Jonathan Dwyer).  But I’d bet that competing with the Hokies will come down to defense, and North Carolina has the better squad on that side of the ball.  

Wake Forest: The 2009 ACC Atlantic might prove to be the most frustrating division of a major conference to watch of any in recent memory.  This just has the feel of a “who wants to win this thing?!” type season over there.  But Wake Forest is the team to keep an eye on.  The Demon Deacons sport nine returning offensive starters including senior QB Riley Skinner and coach Jim Grobe knows how to make up for the loss of guys like Aaron Curry.  Plus, they’ve got a cupcake of a schedule in-and-out of the ACC.  Baylor/Stanford/Elon/Navy?  Come on.  And the only potentially “unwinnable” conference game is October 7 at Georgia Tech.  While Florida State struggles with a horrid schedule that includes 11 bowl teams from last season, Wake Forest should coast to a championship berth out of the ACC Atlantic.

Florida State: I’m including the Seminoles on this list simply because the level of talent in Tallahassee gives you the feeling that a repeat of 1996-1998 is just around the corner.  A talented junior QB in Christian Ponder and the conference’s best offensive line match those expectations; unfortunately, six new (talented, sure – raw, definitely) defensive starters and a painful schedule as discussed above will hamstring the Seminoles all year.  The only way they have a shot at a championship game berth is if Wake Forest stumbles and FSU finds a way to make the math work on 3-4 losses (Miami, BYU, Florida) including possibly 2-3 in the ACC (some combination or all of Miami, GT, @UNC).

Three Must-See Games:

Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech (October 17): As stated earlier, a win either here (or see below) will be critical for the Hokies to come out of the Coastal.  Don’t overlook the fact, however, that Bobby Dodd can be a very tough place to play and a stout GT running game might well be hitting its stride by mid-October.  Tyrod Taylor will need to make better decisions as a mobile quarterback and start hitting his receivers square in the numbers for Tech to come out of this one unscathed.  It’ll be a heckuva game, though.

North Carolina at Virginia Tech (October 29): This came is actually an addendum to the one above, and it completes the story of the factors impacting the fate of the ACC Coastal in 2009.  One simply must go with the other.  If the Hokies lose to GT in Atlanta, they must win against North Carolina at home the next weekend.  The game pits the best defenses in the ACC against one another in a stadium in Blacksburg that seats 60K but feels like 90K.  Again, if Tyrod Taylor makes significant strides the next month or so, the Hokies are clear favorites.  But if not, this match up against UNC could prove the second of two consecutive conference losses for Virginia Tech and a failed season that began with national championship hopes.

Wake Forest at Georgia Tech (November 7): Switching to the Atlantic, I’d be remiss if I did not mention Wake Forest at Georgia Tech in early November.  To this point, if the team is as talented as we’re supposing, the Deacs should not have faced a challenge that they cannot overcome.  This game against Georgia Tech will be decisive in gauging the relative parity between the divisions.  If Wake Forest struggles against GT, a top-three Coastal team, then John Swofford’s carefully crafted ACC divisions are officially at least as misaligned as the Big 12 North/South.

Five (Four, I’m playing a 4-3) Play Makers You Should Know:

Russell Wilson (NC State, quarterback): To this point, I don’t think that I have mentioned NC State.  Wilson just finished his first year, the first freshman ever to be chosen First Team All-ACC after leading the Wolfpack to four wins to close the year.  The only problem for 2009?  An offensive line that is worse off than the Washington Redskins and a schedule that takes NC State on the road for every big game against the ACC Atlantic.  With Tom O’Brien in charge, the Wolfpack are on the up-and-up, and Wilson looks poised to have a noteworthy yet somewhat sophomoric year, and the real breakthrough won’t be until his junior year in 2010.  That said, he’s still worthy of your attention in 2009.

Da’Rel Scott (Maryland, running back): You’ve heard of C.J. Spiller and his pursuit of the ACC record for rushing yards on a team that’s rebuilding and not relevant.  You know about Jonathan Dwyer, the 2008 ACC POY and 2009 ACC preseason POY (journalists in the ACC have such little imagination).  Both appear on the preseason all-conference team.  I’d recommend that you watch Da’Rel Scott at Maryland.  Sure, the Terrapins will be awful this year.  But even with a shoulder injury that plagued him for most of 2008, Scott was the second-leading ACC running back.  At 5′11″/200 and speedy, he might be the lone bright spot on an otherwise entirely boring team.

Riley Skinner (Wake Forest, quarterback):  The forgotten son, yet again.  Skinner wasn’t heavily recruited out of high school, and seems again lost in the mix of the Russell Wilsons, Jacory Harris(s), Christian Ponder(s), and Josh Nesbitt(s) of the world.  Don’t forget him!  Skinner led the nation in completion percentage last year.  And he’s never won fewer than eight games as QB of the Deacons.  I feel like a broken record, but don’t lose sight of them.  Skinner, with Jim Grobe on the sideline, is posed to lead Wake Forest to another championship game berth and, maybe this time, they’ll score in the double-digits.

Jamal Womble (North Carolina, running back): I’m going to go out on a limb here…  Who will be the Russell Wilson of 2009?  The Riley Skinner of 2006?  The freshman who emerges seemingly out of nowhere to impress the entire conference and be subject to wildly high expectations for next season.  I mentioned starter Shaun Draughn above.  Womble may be the C.J. Spiller to Daughn’s James Davis in 2009.  These two are the greatest return-on-investment of any combination of backs in the league.  750 yards and 5 TDs is not out of the question for the 230-lb Womble.  And if Carolina is buoyed by an effective two-headed running game, they may just put up enough points to give that talented defense sometime to fight for.