Learning to Pitch and No Hitters Unrelated

It was whilst (my 14^th use of whilst) having a few beers Friday night that the MLB Network (or whichever channel the bar was tuned to) broke into the 9^th inning of the Giants Padres game.  Obviously Jonathon Sanchez would end up completing his Perfect Game, err No Hitter, but as I, and the rest of the bar rooted him on, I realized that an inordinate number of recent No Hitters have been thrown by players with track records that don’t usually scream No Hit Candidate.

I am not saying these players who threw no hitters that seemingly came out of nowhere wound up being terrible MLB pitchers, though many fit that description as well, just that at the time they threw the no hitter, they hadn’t experienced the type of success you’d expect from someone about to hold the opposition to 0 hits over 27 outs.  Let’s take a look at the facts:

Since Francisco Cordova threw his no-no in 1997, there have been 16 no hitters, and 3 perfect games.  The perfect games all came from pitchers with serious track records of success – David Wells, David Cone, and Randy Johnson.  However, of the 16 no hitters, I would argue that 8 of them came from players with no dominant track record at the major league level, and even so, that may be conservative.   Cordova’s no-no came in his second season after posting a 4-7 record in his rookie season.  After a rookie campaign in which he went 8-14 with a 5.69 ERA, Eric Milton tossed his no hitter as part of a 7-11 1999 season.  AJ Burnett tossed his no hitter in his third season, with less than 10 career wins under his belt.

The examples continue.  Bud Smith threw a no hitter in September of his rookie year, with 6 wins under his belt.  Anibal Sanchez also threw his no-no as a rookie, with less than 10 wins at that point.  Clay Buchholz tossed 9 hitless innings in just his second start.  And now we have Jonathon Sanchez with 15 wins in his career, and a recent demotion to the pen as part of his pre-no-no resume.

The other 8 no hitters since 1997 were by pitchers that had experienced significant MLB success; names our readers were surely familiar with when they entered the record books: Nomo (2^nd no hitter), Derek Lowe (significant success as a closer), Millwood (3 17+ win seasons under his belt), Buehrle (100 career wins under his belt), Verlander & Lester (both with significant post season success and early career awards).

So the question becomes why.  Why are so many of the recent no hitters by young pitchers with so little career success?  Some may attribute it to scouting, and as pitchers appear more, hitters are better able to learn their style.  However, I think it is actually due to the same reason it is so hard win 300 games in the bigs.  To win 300, a pitcher needs to learn how to pitch, and not just throw – playing a game of chess with each batter in an effort to get as many outs using the fewest pitches possible to give your team the greatest chance to win.  Youngsters, however, usually haven’t learned that skill just yet, and they are more likely to go out showcasing their electric ‘stuff’ as they learn to pitch as their career progresses.  Young pitchers, and their aggressive, go get ‘em style appear to be more likely to throw a no hitter, than their more experienced elders.

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