With last week’s Randy Johnson 300th win story, came a slew of predictions around whom, if anybody, will be the next 300 game winner. And while I threw my two cents in regarding our numbness to historic achievement due to the plethora of records broken over the last decade, I have yet to toss my proverbial hat into the ring that is the next 300 game winner chatter. Before getting into who will be next, I want to start with a few what ifs:
What if John Smoltz had not suffered some serious injuries that led the Braves to using him as a closer for four years? What if injuries had not limited him to 28 innings since the beginning of the 2008 season? At the end of the 2007 season, Smoltz sat at 207 wins. If he averages 15 wins a season over those four spent as a closer, he would have had 261 wins as a forty year old pitcher. While still a stretch, 4 seasons of averaging 10 wins per would not have been inconceivable, and all 3 of the Braves triumvirate could have been in The Club.
What if Pedro Martinez hadn’t been built like a stick? What if he was a skosh more horse-like and able to maintain his performance level? He had 197 wins at the end of his age 33 season. Please take a moment to note that Roy Halladay has amassed 140 wins and he is 32. Many of the pontificators believe that Halladay has a chance, and yet he would need a 57 win season this year to match Pedro’s progress. It also points to how quickly age, injury, and the game can catch up to a pitcher, and that nothing is a foregone conclusion. Had Pedro averaged 12 wins a year for 8 more years he would have been knock, knock, knocking on The Club’s door.
The 180 degree about face that is Pedro’s cumulative win total is what makes suggesting or forecasting that young pitchers have a chance at the club so hard. As much as Scott Boras wants you to believe that Stephen Strausburg is the best prospect ever, and he very well may be, in reality, he has a much greater chance of winning less than 100 games than he does of winning more than 300. That’s no knock on Strausburg, that’s a testament to how hard it is to pitch in this league.
So where does that leave us in terms of guys with a legitimate shot at 300? Roy Halladay does have a chance. His 140 wins, though, definitely put him behind the 8 ball. Of the last 7 pitchers to join the club (excluding the knuckleballer Phil Niekro) all of them had at least 167 wins at that age, except Randy Johnson, and two (Maddux and Seaver) were already past 200. Even one season lost due to injury and his bid is tossed out the door. He will have to pitch to 44 to 45 to even have a chance. Oswalt has himself off to a nice start, but will have to reverse his downward trending numbers in a big way to even smell 200 wins at this point.
However, I believe the most likely amongst the actives is Carsten Charles Sabathia, who with 122 wins at 28 years old is ahead of the pace of 4 of the last 7 members. He obviously has a lot of wins left to amass, but his combination of body type, pitching type, and the run support he is likely to see over the several years makes him a great candidate. If he is able to pitch until he is 42, he must average just 13 wins per season to make it. He has averaged over 15 every season in his career.
One final fascinating note is the halted progress of Dontrelle Willis, who had 58 wins through his age 24 season, essentially ahead or at the same pace as all of the last 7 members. Another testament to how hard it is to get to 300 (averaging 15 wins for 20 straight seasons), is that he very well may not 100, and he has yet to suffer a serious injury. Baseball is a fickle game, and the 300 Club is the elite fraternity that requires sustained greatness to gain access.
tim wakfield anyone?