Here They Are… Your League Leaders (Pitching)

Following up on last week’s perusal of MLB league leaders (they probably aren’t who you assume they are!), we look today at pitchers, both in the American and National Leagues.  As with hitters, we’ll take each major statistic and break down players in terms of “Biggest Surprises”, “Least Likely to Continue”, and “Start Worrying”.  The “Start Worrying” category will mainly be guys not listed in the league leaders, but those who are struggling in that category.

Simple enough?  After this brief commercial interruption (readers encouraged to watch the entire clip), please follow the jump.

Wins

Biggest Surprises:

A couple of subcategories, here.  First, the “I didn’t know you had it in you” category; leaders of the pack include Jason Marquis and Matt Cain.  Sure, Marquis has picked up double digit wins in previous seasons, but the pace he’s on right now suggests something a little more special (read his 2004 season with St. Louis @ 15-7 with a bit higher ERA this year resulting from Coors as his home park).  Marquis’ propensity for a terrible outing every 3, however, also makes  him a prime candidate for the next category.  For Cain, it’s not that I didn’t think he had it in him, it’s that I never imagined the Giants had it in them.  The team is 29-26, and Cain is a remarkable 7-1.

The second subcategory is the “welcome back, buddy”, featuring Justin Verlander.  He’s following a dreadful 11-17 campaign in 2008 with what looks, from early returns, like it may be a repeat of 2007.  His ERA is down, WHIP (thankfully) at 1.14 and he’s just been mowing people down with 11.3 strikeouts per nine innings.  Kudos to any owner who took another shot at him.

Finally, a guy who’s  been covered widely by Vlookup Vince, the emergence of Zack Greinke.  I still think that the Royals (and five CGs and counting in the first half) will catch up to him a bit, and while you can’t knock eight hard-earned wins, I’d still consider this a surprise given the circumstances now covered ad nauseum by Sports Illustrated and many others.

Least Likely to Continue:

No competition – Bronson Arroyo.  You can’t play for the Reds and wield a 5+ ERA and expect to get lucky every single time to step on the rubber.  He’ll finish with one of those painful 12-9 seasons with a 5.29 ERA that only benefits teams in mixed leagues that significantly reward wins.

Start Worrying:

Guys who simply aren’t winning include Cliff Lee (no real surprise) at 3-6, but a notable 2.96 ERA, Gil Meche (2-5), Jarrod Washburn (3-4), Roy Oswalt (2-3), and Ian Snell (1-6).  But the unequivocal winner here is Francisco Liriano.  In trots to the gates of 2009 the highly regarded stud, a keeper even in some leagues.  And now in June (approaching mid-June), he’s 2-7 with a 6.12 ERA.  He might have some nagging injury, but 32 walks in 64 innings and tremendous pitch counts point to a painful 2009 on the field immediately following a painful 2008 off of it.

Earned Run Average

Biggest Surprises:

Again, the “welcome back, buddy” goes to Erik Bedard, who if he can remain healthy may be primed for something similar to 2006.  Only issue here is that he’s 30, folks, and has only in his entire six-year career notched double digits wins in two seasons.

Edwin Jackson is a better overall surprise candidate, however, as his ERA continues to consistently decrease.  His sub-1.00 WHIP points to a positive trend that might actually continue, combined with keeping the ball in the park.

Least Likely to Continue:

An easy choice is Johnny Cueto, a player who I have been enamored with for the better part of two years, but would seem particularly unlikely to continue to post a sub-3.00 ERA playing in Cincinnati with a mid-4′s ERA pedigree.  I’ll give Cueto the benefit of the doubt, however, and state that although there is no chance his ERA remains where it is, he could be working toward something in in the mid-3′s.

The guy I have a hard time believing will ever keep this up is Jered Weaver.  His FB/GB ratio continues to be way too high, BAIP is a concern and his ERA is 1.21 at home but 3.71 on the road.  You’d be hard pressed to convince me that he doesn’t finish somewhere in 2007′s 13-7, 3.70 range; a good year, yes, but a rough remainder to get there.

Start Worrying:

“Start worrying” for ERA is a softball category – inevitably, year-on-year, there are pitchers who just start incredibly slow and often never recover.  Thus the conventional wiscom to draft hitters, known generally for their consistency, over pitchers.  This category will generally mask trends that are worth noting, such as a couple of horrible starts in April that keep an ERA high until the All Star Break.  That said, I’d venture that Jon Lester at 5.09 is the biggest worry, despite a great outing this weekend; maybe he’s turning it around, but variability (earned run totals since May 15, by start: 5, 8, 3, 5, 2, 0, 6, 5, 1) remains a significant question.

Runners Up – Liriano, Brad Penny, Jeremy Guthrie, Jamie Moyer, Jon Garland, Gavin Floyd and many others.

Strikeouts

Biggest Surprises:

No real surprises on this list – these are the power pitchers of each league.  The only major surprise that I would note (and have noted above) is Verlander, given last year’s performance where his fastball couldn’t hit anything but the fat part of the plate and his curve looked like mine.  His resurgence is one of the great stories of 2009.

Least Likely to Continue:

Strikeouts are one category where it is very difficult to judge whether or not the output will continue.  In general, if you’ve got it, you’ve got it.  Look at Lester.  His ERA is above 5+, he’s had more trouble with his control than just about anybody else on the list, and yet he has 74 (now 85) strikeouts in 74 innings and sits in the top-five of the American League.  If anybody, I’d say Vasquez, but that would be entirely baseless and driven by personal disdain.

Start Worrying:

Again, strikeouts are tough and in general, you either tend to accumulate them or you don’t.  And when you start to lose it (see Bartolo Colon), it’s a long, rocky demise.  The best fact-based concern out there is C.C. Sabathia.  K/9 for 2009 stands at just above 6 strikeouts; over the last three years, that number has been in the 8-9 range.

Were 253 innings (and 251 strikouts) in 2008 too many?  It’s worth watching.

Saves

Biggest Surprises:

Heath Bell’s two saves over the last five years prompted most owners to be cautious on draft day, and take a risk in the 140s with the second or third closer; those owners missed out on a steal.  San Diego has won 26 games and Bell has saved 16 of them.  He keeps the ball on the ground, generally keeps his pitch count low, and his first priority is to strike guys out.  Sounds like the makeup of a great closer to me.  Bell will approach 40 saves even playing on a team that will eventually (trust me) find its way to the cellar of the NL West.

Least Likely to Continue:

Ryan Franklin has been named the Cardinals closer about a dozen times in two years, and every time he steps into that role it feels like he’s about to lose it.  Jason Motte is probably the future there, although after a poor showing in the season’s first week, there doesn’t seem like too much of a rush to put him back out there.  Knowing Franklin, though (remember three blown saves in 10 days last July?), he’ll find a way to screw this up, finish with around 20 saves for the year, and if you trace it back strictly enough, cost the Cardinals a playoff berth.

Start Worrying:

The heralded trio of Carlos Marmol, Rafael Soriano, and Joel Hanrahan would appear to have found a place in the 7th and 8th innings, instead of the ninth, for each of their respective squads.  Hanrahan rightfully so; you can’t have a 6.84 ERA and expect to close games out, even for the Nationals.  But lack of depth there teases the fact that he’ll be back in that role sometime during the second half of the year.  Marmol is apparently having control problems, and has done nothing to convince anybody that Kevin Gregg isn’t the solution in Chicago.  Sure, Marmol is lights-out when he’s “on”, but he’s spent much of 2009 in the “off” position.  And finally, Soriano.  He’s been pitching great, and for years I have been waiting to see him as the full-time stopper.  But Mike Gonzalez has closed pretty well in Atlanta and unless that changes, I’d bet that Soriano will remain a 10ish save candidate with about 20 holds, an ERA around 2.00, and a strong position on the rumor mill again next year that “he’s the next great closer”.

Happy Monday.

CAPS LOCK CARL

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