Here They Are… Your League Leaders (Hitting)

I usually try to avoid even perusing the MLB stat leaderboard for the first six or eight weeks of every baseball season; the sample size is generally too small, so why get hung up on quick starts?  We’ve discussed this previously.  Come mid- to end of May, however, it is worth taking a look at the leaderboards, both AL and NL, if only to track storylines that are beginning to develop or players you want to target for a trade (sending or receiving).

You’ll also probably realize that either A) a few guys on you squad are performing much better, comparatively, than you assumed; and/or B) that a few guys are really struggling, not just out of the gate, but now closing on two full months of the season in the books.

This week, we’ll take a look at both hitters and pitchers, with our breakdown of hitters starting today.  I’ll start after the jump, for the sake of space.

Batting Average

Biggest Surprises:

Usual suspects in the American League, save two: 1) Jason Bartlett, who despite a recent trip to the disabled list and an average draft position deep in the 100s, has arguably been having the best season start of any shortstop in baseball; and 2) Victor Martinez, finally healthy after an incredibly frustrating 2008, continues to please owners with his catcher eligibility, top-five batting average, top-10 OBP, and projected 100+ RBIs.

Least Likely to Continue:

If I had to make a guess, I’d say Bartlett.  25 strikeouts against 12 walks just doesn’t bode well.  You just can’t count on a guy continuing to see the ball that well; injuries usually lead to the ball going from looking like a watermelon to looking like a pecan.  A close runner up is Brad Hawpe, simply because he hits about .450 at Coors Field but only .275 on the road.

Start Worrying:

Players in this category don’t appear on the list above; in fact, they appear on the exact opposite end of the spectrum.  An obvious candidate is David Ortiz.  Papi’s continued struggles, in general and especially with runners in scoring position, and sub-Mendosian batting average are well known (.185 as of Monday).  I’d also mention Chris Davis, the supposed stud from Texas.  Wait another year on him.  He sits at this point in the year with 77 strikeouts, which is ridiculous, driving that .194 BA and .253 OBP.

Runners Up – Mike Aviles, Brian Giles, B.J. Upton, Dan Uggla, Geovany Soto.

Home Runs

Biggest Surprises:

Jason Bay, with this kind of power?!  We’ve seen it before, but most assumed he had settled back into the 25-30 HR category.  Now he’s on target for around 40 over a full season with home games at Fenway.  But more surprising is Nelson Cruz.  Sure, he had remarkable power in the minors.  But most people thought he would heat up relatively slowly through the first half of the year; instead, he’s a top-five AL power hitter, if homers are our primary barometer (top-15 RBIs as well), with 11 doubles and nine steals to boot.

Least Likely to Continue:

Predictions for future futility in the home run category are much more challenging than batting average.  Guys with low BB/K ratios and high batting average on balls in play generally slow down over time, and their averages fall with them.  But take a guy like Chris Davis: 12 homers, 11 walks, 77 strikeouts, sub-.200 batting average.  We’ve seen similar characters, who will just continue to blast a homer every 15 or so times they step to the plate, even if they only get two singles in the remainder of those at-bats.   Honestly, I’d probably bet against Adrian Gonzalez.  Sure, he’ll hit 35 homers.  But 50?  I’m not so sure.  He plays half his games in the most expansive ballpark in baseball, and looks to really just be jacking the ball, not using the space that is provided by those dimensions (just four doubles).

Not on the list above, but in the same category is Brandon Inge, who has 12 home runs as of Monday but I’d bet does not finish above 20.

Start Worrying:

Again, Ortiz is the front runner.  But if there was a category that I would bet he does “get back”, it would be this one.  He’ll finish with 25 homers.  Outside of him, start fearing for James Loney.  Not playing poorly by any stretch of the imagination, but certainly not hitting for power out in LA.

Runners Up – Jordan Schafer (like a 15-year old), Jhonny Peralta, Bobby Abreu, Geovany Soto, Russell Martin.

Runs Batted In

Biggest Surprises:

Eva, goodness gracious.  55 RBI and it’s only June 1.  Remarkable, but certainly not unheard of.  This not necessarily surprising, but more a welcome and wholly expected surprise for the millions who drafted him in the first or second round.  See next category.  Torii Hunter and Raul Ibanez are a real tandem surprise for me.  Couple of older guys, names you see during the draft and think “well, this has to stop sometime, where’s Nelson Cruz?” and yet they have combined for 88 RBI through about two months of the year.  Assuming both can stay healthy, no real reason why they can’t translate these numbers through summertime toward 110-120 RBI for the year.

Least Likely to Continue:

Evan Longoria (see Josh Hamilton of 2008).  Probably the best third baseman of 2009, and will continue to be amongst the top-three, but while he’ll approach 80 RBI before the All Star Break, he’ll level off at about 125 for the year.  Meanwhile, Mark Teixeira will continue to heat up and finishes with nearly 140.

Start Worrying:

Now, another tough category here, since this is most likely tied to team performance.  Adam Dunn will probably continue to blast homers, but it’s unlikely his RBI pace will keep up; he just doesn’t have guys ahead of him that will get on base enough, unless Nick Johnson continues to hit in the two hole, Cristian Guzman continues to play like Ozzie Smith reincarnated, and Ryan Zimmerman manages to patiently drive the gaps for another four months.

That said, winner here is Chris Young, the hitter (Arizona).  165 at-bats, three homers, 12 RBI.  He’s never been a huge RBI guy (career high 85 RBI in 2008 over 160 games), but the hope was always there.  I’d venture right now that it will never come.  He’ll never strikeout less than 150 time a year and over the last three years he’s hit .207, .250 and for 2009 currently .147 with runners in scoring position.

Stolen Bases

Biggest Surprises:

Whooo-wee!  Carl Crawford, back again.  He’s just 27, folks.  30 stolen bases, and caught just once.  Sure, he stole six bases in one game, but even without those, he would lead the majors by three swipes.  I’d venture he continues this performance, too, maybe even to the tune of 85-90 SB for the year.  Otherwise, I’ll also mention David Wright.  Not that he can’t steal bases; 34 in 2007 says enough.  But I was among the crowd that thought his clearance to “go ahead and take it” would be significantly hindered moving forward.  He finished with 15 in 2008, but has 12 stolen bases through two months in 2009 (albeit caught stealing seven times).  If he didn’t have just three homers (a concern), you’d say he was once again a clear 30-30 threat.

Least Likely to Continue:

Robert Abreu, IV.  He’s 35, everybody, at least as far as we know.  And hasn’t stolen 30 bases since 2006.  The weirdest part is that last year he stole 22 bases but was caught 11 times.  In 2009, he’s stolen 15 but has not been caught yet.  I’d venture those aged legs tire out a bit over the course of the season and he finishes with just shy of 30, with a somewhat lengthy stay on the disabled list for tweaking a hamstring while pretending like he’s 25 again.

Start Worrying:

Tough choices here; most guys are either fast and allowed to steal, fast and not allowed to steal, or slow.  Amongst the first group, I’d be most concerned about Grady Sizemore (though an injury may explain the 7:6 SB/CS ratio) and Rafael Furcal (just three SBs, caught an equal number of times).  Sizemore won’t run much in the second half if he’s recovering from the elbow injury, especially if he has even minor surgery, and Furcal just isn’t getting the “go ahead” as much as he used to.  You know how Joe Torre does.

Runners Up – Brandon Phillips, Edgar Renteria, Alfonso Soriano.

That’s about it, for now.  Stay tuned for a breakdown of pitchers.  It’s worth sorting the players in your league and taking a look at where your team falls.  Go to the waiver wire, and instead of “available”, select “all”.  I did this today and realized that my pitchers were awful.  Now the tricky part is fixing it.

CAPS LOCK CARL

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