Improving my Rec Softball Team with some VORP analysis

Our About page describes CubicleGM as the playground for ‘Working Class General Managers’ where, sitting in our cubicles we each have creative and worthwhile ideas about our favorite teams and sports in general.  How to best fill that open Closer, Shooting Guard, or Nickel Cornerback position?  We all have well thought out ideas for each.  That’s what brought us here originally, and why we keep coming back.  However, for the most part we debate at these ideas watercooler, over a beer, or at a sporting event, and don’t have the chance to actually act on these theories we have.

Once a week, Vince dutifully closes Excel a few hours earlier than normal and makes his way to the park for some softball.  And thus as I jogged out to CF for my penultimate Spring softball game I got to thinking about how our squad could be made better for the upcoming Summer League by using the same theories, stats and strategies discussed a few times a week here on CubicleGM.  I see our Spring league as Spring Training, and Summer League as the Show.  Loosen up the shoulder a bit and remove the cob webs as the weather warms, in time for the warm summer nights on the field.  No better time to make some roster adjustments than as Spring Training comes to a close.  Obviously our sample sizes are small, our data sets exponentially smaller, and our scouting lies somewhere between minimal and minimal plus the impaired judgment that comes with a few beers.  But some players and teams are clearly far superior to average or replacement level, and a few roster tweaks could secure a few extra runs a game and possibly even a few extra wins over a season.  Teams outpace their competitors by fielding players that are better than a replacement player – plain and simple.  So as I stand in CF waiting for our pitcher to get his act together I ask myself what is a replacement level player in our league?  In our co-ed league a run of the mill guy seems to go 1 for 3 with a single while showing minimal range – able to field 1B or man an outfield spot with spotty defense.  A run of the mill female?  0-3 while manning 2B, Catcher, 4th OF, or Pitcher – which I contend, in slow pitch softball, matters less than Emilio Bonafacio’s April stats.

So the quickest way to improve our team is to find players that perform significantly better than those lines above, which brings me to my most interesting realization of the half inning, which dawns on me as I field a few bloopers that fall in front of me.

The quickest way to improve your team is to find girls that can go 2-4 and field a lick.  Initially, I would not have thought that girls were the answer, but follow along here.  1.  A replacement level guy goes 1-3, while an average guy goes 2-3 with a few doubles mixed in with some singles.  While one or two guys in the league go 3-3 with two doubles and a homerun, they are few and far between.  Further, any guy that good already has a team, likely coaches it and has no desire to jump ship.

An average female?  Still 0-3.  Making up 40% of the line-up, they account for 61% of the outs.  However, if you field a team where the average female hits 1-3 rather than 0-3, over the course of six innings, you will average an extra 6 hits, with guys getting an extra 4 at bats to mix in a few doubles along with singles.  And I would argue that it is much easier to find females that can hit 1-3 than finding guys that will go 3-3 with multiple extra base hits each game.  Surely I work or know some females that played high school softball and still have a knack for swinging the stick, right?  Even better if they toss their glove around a bit, too.  On second thought, I surely spend far too much time in Excel for that to be the case – but at least I can continue to apply some GM concepts and ideas to my recreational sports life and hope to put together a better Summer Squad.

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