Something to Ponder Whilst on the Poo-er

Amongst thousands of other places, Zach Greinke’s impressive April has been discussed here

So Fresh and So Clean Clean

and here as he won Pitcher of the Month for April.  Joe Posnanski has a great post with Greinke fun facts.  The most interesting nugget from Joe is that Greinke could let up 9 runs in the first inning of his next outing, and still have an ERA at 2.  Thats outrageous.  So whilst on the poo-er this morning I ask you to ponder what kind of line Greinke ends the season with.  A few things to consider: Greinke has now won 9 straight starts, posting a .69 ERA dating back to last seaosn.  On the other hand, he started last season 3-0 with an ERA under 1.00,   but finished the season with 13-10 record and a 3.47 ERA.  Obviously 6-0 is a larger sample size than 3-0, and he has been far more impressive this season, but a 20+ win season is by no means guaranteed.  So where does he end up?

I propose 20-7 with a 3.21 ERA.  How did I get there?  Another 28 starts, where he averages 7 IP and 3ER per game.  Winning half of those outings, losing 25% and getting a no decision on the other 25% leads to exactly that line.  Too good?  Not good enough?

The most recent point of reference is Cliff Lee last year where he started almost as good as Greinke and ended 22-3 with a 2.54 ERA.