I have a coworker who left for the bar below our office building at 4:30pm today, just about eight hours after returning from two weeks of vacation. Whilst admiring his boldness yet feeling a bit timid myself (I left at 4pm yesterday), I’m struck with boredom as I sit here, without anybody to talk cube-to-cube with. So I’ll talk to you (myself? depends on today’s traffic) instead.
Theretofore, I began to review about an hour ago the output of my fantasy baseball team for the first week. J.J. Hardy has me so frustrated that I might release him; Cristian Guzman is available. Marco Scutaro might replace Mike Aviles. Half my team is on the trading block. I lost my first weekly head-to-head matchup by 100 points and now every sleeper – and proven player, for that matter – that I drafted looks like Rip Van Winkle off in the wilderness.
I read yesterday a very good article by Joe Sheehan, our friend over at Baseball Prospectus, on the ridiculousness of taking any of last week’s output – or this week, for that matter, or any other – as a broader sign of anything to come. His reassurance, though not enough to make drop Brandon Inge yet, reminded me that patience is certainly a virtue in fantasy baseball. But flying in the face of that virtue, day after day, week after week, is that hot new pick-up on the waiver wire, that guy who is rising just enough on the ESPN Player Rater to be visible to everybody else in your league, to almost, just almost, force you to drop one of your more proven players for the buy low-fly high potential of a Brian Bannister or Craig Wilson. Don’t give in.From April 7-13 last year, Bannister had an ERA of 1.29 and two wins, bringing his season totals to 0.86 and 3. He looked like Orel Hershiser or something. He finished the year 9-16 with a 5.76 ERA. By April 30, he’d allowed seven runs in three innings against the Rangers and increased his ERA from 2.48 to 4.04.
Craig Wilson is everybody’s favorite recent example (remember 2006?) when he hit five homers from April 10-16, didn’t hit another until May 23, was traded soon after to the Yankees where he hit .212 and now is nowhere to be found. Wilson had a similar week earlier in his career when he hit five homers and 10 RBI (10-of-37) between September 8-14, 2003.
In 2003, Mike DeJean saved four games for the Brewers in one week and fantasy leagues treated him like Eckersley. During the next three years of his career, he never saved another game. He now resides in West Monroe, Louisiana with his wife and two kids.
Most random weekly outputs since 2003 outside of those mentioned above include:
HITTERS –
- Kevin Mench, TEX, OF (April 24-30, 2006): .435 BA, 4 HR (part of a 7 G, 7 HR streak), 10 RBI
- Keith Ginter, MIL, OF (September 27 – October 3, 2004): 11-of-27, 3 HR, 11 RBI, 1.35 OPS
- Lew Ford, MIN, OF (August 15-21, 2005): 12-of-33, 7 runs, 3 HR, 10 RBI, helped MIN win 6/7 games that week
- Luis Matos, BAL, OF (July 14-20, 2003): 9-of-15, 6 runs, one homer, 5 RBIs, .867 SLG
- Matt Joyce, DET, OF (July 7-13, 2008): 9-of-22, 4 HR, 4 2B, 6 RBI, 1.136 SLG
PITCHERS –
- Mike Pelfrey, NYM, SP (July 7-13, 2008): 2 wins, 15 scoreless IP, no walks
- Shawn Chacon, COL, SP (April 14-20, 2003): 0 ER, 14 IP, .163 OBA
- Noah Lowry, SFG, SP (August 21-27, 2006): 2-0, 0.53 ERA, 9 K, 1 CG/SH
- Tom Gorzelanny, PIT, SP (August 6-12, 2007): 2-0, 16 IP, 13 K, 1 CG/SH
- Matt Clement, CHC, SP (July 28 – August 3, 2003): 2-0, 0.53 ERA, 17 IP, 15 K
You can also see above why some teams have struggled in recent memory; guys like Luis Matos simply haven’t panned out in the long term for the Orioles. Also, much more likely for hitters than for pitchers (two wins, great! plus MLB hitters bias from 2003-2008). Outfielders obviously the predominant random recipient.
Fantasy baseball is to a certain degree like the stock market. Draft proven commodities, and a few sleepers, keeping your beta/risk to an acceptable level and wait. But as an activity it also tends to be a bit more like day trading then slopping 10% into your 401k every two weeks and praying for a million to pop out when you’re 65. With that in mind, treat these “breakouts” during first few weeks – and any other microcosm of the year as a whole – as critical to maintaining situational awareness but not a call for panic.
Wait and see if [INSERT PLAYER HERE BUT I'LL GO WITH J.J. HARDY] continues to suck. Oh wait, two homers this week, maybe he doesn’t! Same goes for [INSERT PLAYER - YOUR VERSION OF MIKE AVILES]. His returns thus far, particularly depending on your roster depth/size, may be reason enough to drop him for a waiver wire pickup.
Fantasy baseball, in general, is won on these types of decisions, combined with a good shelf of blue chips that you don’t really have to worry about. But, at least in my humble opinion, it isn’t time to make those decisions quite yet.
CAPS LOCK CARL
Bravo. I may vomit on my keyboard if I get offered Kyle Lohse for Nate McLouth again this week.
GOOD GOD a Lew Ford reference!
Actually, Vince and I had a long conversation recently on how the JJ Hardy character in your example has a much higher value than say Stephen Drew. PECOTA has JJ hitting 21 homers and Drew hitting 20. Hypothetically, if Drew hits 3 his first week and JJ hits zero, I think it’s wise to deduce JJ has 21 homers remaining in his bat while Drew only has 17. Injuries or rookies distort this view, but both of these guys are 26 year old healthy shortstops w/ a couple yrs in the majors. The potential ranges on their season totals will be small, we know what we’re getting more or less (PECOTA lists both having less than an 18% collapse rate).
So further to Carl’s point, don’t only refrain from panicking, but capitalize on other’s rush to do so. Go see if Adam Lind and Ted Lilly can’t get you Roy Oswalt.
I remember how Chris Shelton was one of the most coveted players at the beginning of the 2006 season, before he fell way off. His track record probably showed that same philosophy of “using up” those hits and home runs early in the season…he hit 9 HR in 13 games, only to hit just 7 more in the next 102 games. Shelton interestingly enough was DFA’d to make room on the Rangers’ roster for Chris Davis last season.
[...] The most surprising story line of of the first two weeks of the season has the uber-documented hot start of the Florida Marlins. What does an 11-1 start mean for a team’s playoff prospects? The much referenced Elias Sports Bureau, via Scott Miller at CBS Sports, report that the Marlins are only the fourth NL team since 1983 to start at least 9-1. The 1990 Braves and 2003 Giants both parlayed their hot starts into playoff births, while the ‘94 Braves may have, but had their bid shortened as a result of the strike. Needless to say an 11-1 start can’t hurt, but I wouldn’t pencil the Marlins into the playoffs just yet. CNNSI reckons it is the Marlin’s balanced attack that has them off to their great start, but Vlookup Vince thinks it mostly due to 2 factors: Their great pitching, and their early season schedule. Baseball Prospecuts reported that some scouts think the Marlins have the best staff in the league, and the early season performances of Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco, Chris Volstad, and Ani Sanchez have been astounding. However, before jumping to any grand conclusions and annointing the Marlins as the team to beat, lets take a look at their opponents: Nationals (6), Mets (3), Braves (3). The Nationals very well may be historically bad this season, and even still the Marlins needed 9th inning comebacks in the 9th inning of all three weekend games. The did beat Johan Santana and Javier Vazquez thanks to outstanding outings from Johnson and Sanchez. Can they sustain the winning? Time will tell, but as CAPS LOCK CARL wrote, always have to put the early weeks of April in proper perspective. [...]