Between March 30 and April 6 each and every year baseball pundits think long and hard. They take out their cauldrons, mix in last season’s results, add in each team’s off-season roster maneuvers, toss in some consideration for player growth/regressions, add in some magic potion, and voila, they have their pre-season predictions. Some pontificators use a more mathematical formula, while others are more of the hand-waving, I mean guessing, type. I thought it would be a worthwhile exercise to review a cross section of playoff team predictions to see what the all-mighty bestowers of playoff spots think will happen over the next six months.
I used 22 predictions from ESPN, Baseball Prospectus, and Fox for the comparison. The results from this diverse group of playoff predictors? 10 teams have zero chance of making the playoffs. Of the other 20 that should actually go out and play games this season, 7 shouldn’t get their hopes too high as they have less than a 10% chance of making the playoffs. Only 9 teams have greater than 32% chance of making the playoffs. Keep in mind that only 8 teams make the postseason! Let me put that in perspective for a second: of the 30 teams in MLB, the experts believe that only 9 have a greater than 1 in 3 chance of making the playoffs.
So how do the teams break out? We are stealing a page from Billy Simmons’ playbook and using the trustworthy groups approach to lay this out.
The ‘Wow, what am I doing at the bar, I have zippy chance of any girl talking to me tonight, I have no business being here Group’:
Not even one pundit had Orioles, Blue Jays, Tigers, Royals, Mariners, Nationals, Pirates, Astros, Rockies, or Padres making the playoffs. Most of these are poorly managed or low budget clubs that in reality have very little chance of succeeding this season. I will put an asterix next to the Orioles and Mariners, for very different reasons, though. I reckon the Orioles are more a product of their division than their talent level. They very well could be the favorite if they played in the NL West, and are certainly a quickly improving team. The Mariners, on the other hand, could end up sneaking in if some of their question marks pan out, and their division ends up being extremely poor.
The ‘Wow, do I really have a chance with this girl, or is she just flirting with me for a few minutes to make her ex-boyfriend jealous Group’:
There were seven teams that were picked to make the playoffs once or twice. The picked once in 22 ballots teams include the Giants (Winning the weak NL West), Marlins and Brewers (Wild Card winners). The White Sox, Rangers, Reds, and Cardinals were each picked twice for the playoffs. Both of the Reds picks were for Wild Card wins, while the other 3 got 2 division picks each. It would be a great story for MLB if the Reds were able to ride their young hitters and pitchers to a post season birth, and while it is unlikely, a 10% chance isn’t outrageous. Similarly, the Marlins could possibly snag a wild card through their young pitchers. The Giants have a ton of pitching, and I actually think they have a great than 1 in 22 chance of winning their weak division.
The ‘If I step in a buy her a drink 30 minutes before last call, I have a shot at making some thing happen Group’:
The old scope the bar just before last call, and find a girl to buy a drink in a last ditch, save the night move is much bally-hooed, so VLookup Vince hears. However, in reality it rarely succeeds with the cream of the crop, in this case named ‘Ms. Playoffs’. However, according to our unknowing panel, The Twins, Athletics, and Braves could pull off such a coup, by being selected to reach the playoffs 5, 6, and 6 of the 22 times. The Twins reach via a division championship in the wide open AL Central 4 of the 5 times, while the A’s only reach via division championships, and the Braves only via Wild Cards. Braves, don’t even set your sights on a division title, its not happening.
The ‘I have really been macking this hottie all night, and I damn deserve for this to pan out Group’:
As previously mentioned, there are 9 teams with a greater than 33% chance at reaching the playoffs, and 8 playoff spots. However, 4 of these squads apparently have a battle ahead of them. The Rays, Yankees, Angels, and Phillies all make the playoffs between 45% and 59% of the time. The pundits see the Rays and Yankees best chances being through a Wild Card, as they are projected to win the division just 27% of the time, while together they claim the AL Wild Card 77% of the time. The Angels, conversely, are never picked to win the AL Wild Card and must fend off the pesky A’s and Rangers to secure their birth. The Phillies, the lone NL squad in this crew, have a 55% likelihood of making the playoffs, with the pundits estimating an equal chance of division win as Wild Card entrance.
The ‘Alright, BMOC is in the house, Ladies, come a flocking if you know whats good for you Group’:
The teams may as well punch their tickets now. If you haven’t been crossing off your list as we went, the 5 remaining are the Red Sox (91%), Indians (73%), Mets (82%), Cubs (95%), and Dodgers (91%). The Red Sox win the best division in baseball 73% of the time, and crack a Wild Card 18% of the time. The Indians only way in is through the Division title, and as long as they hold off the aforementioned White Sox and Twins, they are in. The Mets win the best NL division, the NL East 73% of the time, add in a few Wild Cards and you get 82% chance of palying in October. The Cubs win the weak, weak, weak NL Central 91% of the time, while the Dodgers win the NL West 86% of the time. These squads are winning their division the vast majority of the time, and if not, catching a Wild Card.
So what have we learned?
Baseball-wise:
1.) Large market make a difference? 4 of those 5 in the final group are large market teams, along with 2 of the next 4. While small market teams can still put together a 2-year run, its the large market teams that spend their way to high likelihood playoff spots year in and year out.
2.) The East Coast bias is not going anywhere. The two best divisions in the game are on the east coast. Some experts believe that East Coast teams make up 8 of the 13 best teams in the league. Both East divisions have 3 teams with legitamate playoff hopes, likely contending for two spots.
3.) While many pundits, especially Baseball Prospectus claim the AL Central to be the tightest division, the picks did not indicate that, as the Indians won 70%+.
Pontificator-wise:
1.) There is comfort in crowds. Clearly, picking the obvious, easy pick minimizes the chance of embarrasment come the end of the season.
2.) The mathematically inclined Baseball Prospectus fellas differed from the rest of the group in two major ways. First, they forecast the A’s as having a better chance to win the AL West than the Angels. This will likely depend on how those young arms transition to the big leagues. Second, they reckon that the Braves have a better chance of making the playoffs than the Phillies do, likely due to the pitching the Braves added.
Some rather interesting findings overall, but luckily the pundits and writers don’t get to choose the playoff teams. As the cliche says, ‘Thats why they play the games,’ and I couldn’t be happier that the season is here.
