Last week I wrote two posts around NCAA Bracket Pools. The former more focused on strategies to use while filling out a bracket, while the latter was about peculiarities of this year’s tournament and the bizarre situation I found myself in. For those losing sleep on how my bracket played, I can only say Vince did not win out. Turns out Jorts Mcgee is risk loving, and decided to roll the dice with the all or nothing strategy. He refused to agree to a deal, claiming it lacked integrity. 90 minutes later he won the pool, after UConn was eliminated. In his defense, he took a risk, it worked out, and he won the loot. Good for him, I couldn’t be happier.In watching Monday night’s practice where UNC scrimmaged against a JV squad from Michigan State, I realized there could be one more addition to my NCAA Tourney Picks Strategy Manifesto – the NCAATPSM as it will be referred to from here on out. Actually on second thought, I promise it will not be referred to as the NCAATPSM, its a hard combination of keys to type.
Vince reckons that when choosing your ‘Tier 1′ or ‘Tier 2′ team, you should favor a squad that has a strong core of veteran players, and preferrably has some Tourney experience together. 2 of the past 4 champions returned 4+ starters after a trip to the Final Four the previous year (UNC 2009, Florida 2007). The 2008 Kansas team had 5 Juniors & Seniors that significantly contributed, and won their championship after an Elite 8 run in ‘07. The ‘06 Florida squad was led by their 4 sophomores (Taurean Green, Joakim Noah, Corey Brewer & Al Horford) who certainly weren’t upper classman, but had all played together the year before, and had some time to gel and gain experience. The ‘05 UNC championship team were led by Juniors that had played together for a few years as well.
Conversely, favored teams that failed to win it all often lacked this experience. Last year’s UNC team lacked the experience that led them this season. Last year’s Memphis squad was led by a 1 and done freshman, who was a great player, but lacked NCAA experience. Same goes with the ‘07 Ohio State & Texas teams led by Greg Oden and Kevin Durant.
Of course there are example that contradict the ideas above (read: ‘03 Syracuse – freshman Carmelo), but I feel strongly that favoring experience gives you a better chance to pick a winner than favoring teams that haven’t had tournament experience or the chance to gel and grow together. By no means is this guaranteed to deliver victory, but it likely improves your chances.
