Each year without fail, the MLB trade deadline is an exciting time. July 4th weekend has passed. MLB All Star break has passed. You have a good idea where your team stands, and yet all of a sudden, without failure your team has the chance to go Extreme Makeover, Baseball Edition. They can choose: buyers or sellers? Give away the future (read: Mets, 2004) with little down-the-stretch success to show for it, or they can make some apt acquisitions that fuels a playoff run (read: Brewers, 2008). Some huge names, both current stars – Sabathia, Randy Johnson, Lou Brock, Mike Piazza, and future stars – Bagwell, Smoltz, and the aforementioned Kazmir have all been traded mid-season. Continuing my pattern of using standard fantasy points as the measuring stick, let’s take a look at the most impactful mid-season acquisitions since 1996. In case you haven’t been with us since the beginning (10 days ago), we are still hat tipping baseball1.com, and their amazing data offering.
Pitchers take the top 5 spots and 7 of the top 10 in terms of total fantasy points scored for their new team, as they have the capability to score lots of points in big bunches. The names that top the list include Sabathia (2008 - Brewers – 11 and 2, 1.65 ERA), Randy Johnson (1998 - Astros – 10-1, 1.28 ERA), Octavio ‘Shhhh’ Dotel (2004 – Athletics – 22 saves & 6-2 record), Byung-Hyun Kim (2003 – Redsox – early season trade leading to 16 saves and 8 wins, as well as an eventual flicking of the bird, and falling off the proverbial deepend), and Dave Mlicki (1999 – Tigers – 14 wins and nearly 200 IP after an early season trade). Obviously many of these guys were traded well before the deadline, but none-the-less each were acquired mid season, and made meaningful impacts on their news teams.
The next five include some very familiar hitters, including Mike Piazza (1998 – Mets), Carlos Beltran (2004 – Astros), and Gary Sheffield (1998 – Dodgers), along with some less memorable pitchers: Gabe White (2000 – Rockies – early season mediocre acquisition), and Robert Person! (1999 – Phillies)! Robert Person! – a key member of my 2000 fantasy squad.
As clearly these lists were impacted by when the trade occurred – April vs. June vs. late July – I also looked at points per game for both pitchers and hitters. Randy (38.6 ppg) stole the top spot from CC (30.9), followed by Woody Williams in 2001 (24.5 ppg for the Cards), Rich Harden in 2008 (21.6 ppg for the Cubs), and Curt Schilling in 2000 (20.6 for the DBacks). On the hitting side, Manny averaged an absurd 4.7 ppg after the Dodgers acquired him last season. Big Mark Teixeira came second, averaging 4.2 for the Angels last season, followed by Beltran in 2001 (4.1 ppg), Sheffield’s 1998 (4.0), and Big Mark Tex again, in 2007, averaging 3.9 for the Braves. Clearly, the trades bother Big Tex a lot less than the gnats bothered Joba in the ’07 playoffs.
So what kind of success did these acquisitions have on their teams? Of the top 20 acquisitions in terms of total points earned with their new team, only 7 made the playoffs, leading to 0 World Series titles. However, the story changes significantly when looking at the top 10 pitchers and hitters by points per game, which I equate to high impact mid season acquisitions. Of the 20 acquisitions, 11 helped their teams make the playoffs, leading to 1 World Series title – Dave Justice with the Yanks in 2000. However, of those 9 that didn’t make the playoffs, 4 of them played in the World Series while with their new teams, including Schilling in 2001, Freddy Garcia in 2005, Piazza in 2000 with the Mets, and Placido Polanco helping the 2006 Tigers reach the World Series. The only players to neither make the playoffs that year or help their team make it soon after? Bartolo Colon with the Expos in 2002, Brian Bohanon with the ’98 Dodgers, Sheffield also of the ’98 Dodgers, and Carlos Lee with the Rangers in ’06.
The moral of the story as I see it? 1. Making the big time in season acquisition is far more helpful than trading for the the middle of the road player. 2. Even better if you can hold onto the big ticket acquisition for a few years, allowing you to build around them and make a playoff run for a year or two to follow. Obviously, my analysis didn’t even begin to look at the price to acquire these stars. However, you never want to be Steve Phillips, thinking that Victor Zambrano will provide the push to allow you to overtake the Braves, trading away Kazmir in the process. You want your team to be smart, and diligent, but know that acquiring a talent like Victor Zambrano is likely to do very little for your playoff chances, let along your World Series chances. Giving up a Kazmir for a Johnson, Schilling, or Ramirez as they fade towards the end of the prime years, however is a much more valuable proposition. I wouldn’t lose sleep if your squad passes on Mark Buehrle come July 31, 2009.
Class Dismissed
Is that a way of saying, “If you selected Mark Buehrle with your last draft choice drop him immediately”?
I know it’s not part of the premise of this post, but a player’s contract status definitely impacts trading, especially since you mentioned Teixeira twice because both the Rangers and Braves knew they couldn’t re-sign him. Also important are trades that teams don’t make, including in the off-season…the Red Sox and Yankees deciding to not deal for Johan Santana being the largest such situation recently though that also had impending free agency and a huge new contract as part of the equation.
I know that doesn’t impact fantasy players as much because a good player should put up solid numbers for any team, but Hughes, Kennedy and Melky Cabrera didn’t exactly show last season that the Yankees made a good decision and the Yankees ended up getting an ace in CC without giving up prospects. The players the Indians received for Sabathia haven’t done anything yet and the Brewers made the playoffs so that seems like a good trade though they couldn’t bring him back. In the case of the Red Sox, they also made a good non-trade, especially when it is an understatement to say they ended up relying on players like Ellsbury, Lowrie and Lester last season.
[...] Vince powered up his Excel 2007 for a look at the All Single-Season Fantasy Team, and a look at best in-season acquisitions. In a similar vein, Vlookup Vince cranked his Excel engine again to look at the best fantasty [...]