Nothing like rolling in on a Friday 15-30 minutes late than usual, getting a cup of joe, shooting the crap with some coworkers, and heading to the bathroom for an extended session of thinking before getting the day going in earnest. After you have thoroughly pondered today’s thoughts, provide your realizations in the comments.
Today’s thought to ponder:
How does news that Arod is out for an extended time impact where he is drafted? Standard League? Keeper League?
I’ll lead off:
Standard League: If he is out about 25% of the season, reducing his projected production by 25% puts him roughly on the level of Mark Reynolds and Aubrey Huff. However, because you can stash him on the DL, and play a waiver-wire quality 3b while he is out, the stats put up by 75% of Arod + 25% of a Ty Wiggington/Ian Stewart type puts him near the same production as Aramis Ramirez – which seems to be a 30-35 pick.
Keeper League: ARod can still hit and still has serious value this season, based on the above. While he has now hit the DL both of the last two seasons – after no visits since 2000, he continues to rake, and doesn’t seem to have any lingering injuries. Again, assuming he misses about 25% of the season, he seems like a 20-25 pick, given his high keeper value.
After some deep thought on the toilet, I think there’s also some additional complexity with keeper leagues… How many keepers? The whole roster or just, say, 3-5? What’s the roster breakdown? A single 3B, or plus 1B/3B or UTIL? DL spots? Many things to consider.
With a whole keeper roster he’s obviously on the squad. With five keepers he still makes the cut, though I would seriously consider letting him go if I was limited to three, particularly if I’m only playing a single 3B (and not a 1B/3B as well). I’m not sure he’s the first guy off the board just to stash him on the DL for a quarter of the year, so you can probably get him in the first 3-4 rounds of the “real” draft, post-keepers.
Also, there’s the issue of “where is my team right now”. If you think you have the pieces in place for a title run this year, then keeping him in the scenario above is debatable. If you don’t, then you figure he still has a few good, post-steriod (or not? he’s still traveling with that cousin, right) years left in him and you don’t want to miss on those. However, if you get 3 keepers and hold onto him instead of a CC Sabathia or Nick Markakis type player, then I think you’re shooting yourself in the foot for the first 3-4 months.
One last point: What’s your league setting? Head to head or straight up, year-long? Something to consider as well.
Good topic for thought. That just sucked up almost two hours this morning.
I’m not keeping him under any circumstances. A Roid not worth the trouble. Check out ESPN – he needs a miniseries. People need to band together and show this guy that we’re not gonna keep rooting for players that lie and cheat.
STrange that this happened mere weeks after the espn.com article about how he more than likely WON’T break Aaron’s record. I forget who wrote it, probably Keith Law
Well, they do believe that past steroid users are more likely to get injured later in their careers, though, they have no reason for it yet. It was a Nate Silver article, borrowed from baseballprospectus as i recall.
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