The Cream Wants Out of the House

From the wires today, news that the agent for Barry Lamar Bonds given the go-ahead to inquire if any teams are interested in signing The Cream to a deal for 2009 (Agent Still Seeking Team for Bonds).  With the federal trial on hold, it looks like old Barry is having a tough time finding something to do.

The question remains, all assumptions aside: Where does The Cream fall on the draft board if he signs with, say, the Kansas City Royals tomorrow?

Three ways to break this down, I think…

1) Where would The Cream fall statistically among 2009 OFs and in overall ADP (average draft position)?

First, a basic chart used ad nauseum by “fantasy experts” from Yahoo! to ESPN but relatively useful here:

Who is Player A, you ask? The one-and-only Vladimir Guerrero. Vlad ranked #19 among mixed league OFs in 2008 production (by points) and is currently being drafted for 2009 at an ADP of #123 (13th round of 10-team league). Player B? Jermaine Dye, ranked #14 among mixed league OFs in points production for 2008 with an ADP of #80 (8th round of a 10-team league) in 2009.

For fantasy output based on 2007/2008 stat comparison, The Cream ranks somewhere in between these two other aging sluggers.  With those statistics, Barry’s mixed league ADP would be between pick #80 and #125. You figure that in a points league, he is on the closer to #80 in that spectrum for relative value (overall draft position would be higher because he’s obviously risky). In 5×5 leagues, he’s certainly much closer to the #125 range in terms of value, if not a bit higher.

Based on stat comparison for immediately prior years, The Cream appears to be the #15-20 OF. Believable? I’m not so sure.

2) How would Kauffman Stadium (i.e. the House that Nolan Ryan Goose-Egged, as an opposing pitcher, shortly after opening in 1973) impact The Cream’s projected stats?

In 2007, Barry didn’t make an appearance at Kauffman. He did, however, in 2003, where he went 4-for-9 with 1 HR and 5 walks. I guess that tells us absolutely nothing.

An important general note that the move from AT&T Park in San Francisco to Kauffman would add 21 feet down the left field line but remove 46 feet in the right-center gap. The Cream likes to pull the ball, so you figure the shorter drive to the gap helps him marginally, with lengthening the left-field line a relative wash.

Net-net, nothing about Kauffman gives an indicator that Barry’s stats would suffer too much. If anything, his HR number might increase slightly, especially since he hasn’t been a gaps doubles hitter in years.

To play in Kauffman Stadium, you also have to figure that Barry would be playing with the 2009 Kansas City Royals. That said, a change to the AL would almost certainly put The Cream as a starter at DH instead of RF, ousting Billy Butler, who’s already so bad in the field that they’ve put him at DH at 22. Butler probably gets time there and at 1B. Doubtful that Barry plays anywhere but anti-social section of the bench in the top-half of innings and DH in the bottom-half except in interleague play where he probably pinch hits and complains that he isn’t starting in right.

Playing at DH is obviously a huge boon for The Cream. His knees have bothered him for ages, and having the ability to saunter out once an hour Kirk Gibson-like and hit bombs has got to improve overall numbers (The Cream = G, AB, HR & RBI +10%).

Playing with the Royals is awful for The Cream. He’s never benefited from hitting ahead of a real slugger, unless you count Jeff Kent, and Alex Gordon, Mike Jacobs and Jose Guillen certainly don’t fit that category. He immediately becomes the leading candidate to lead the league in walks, the value of which depends entirely on your league. In points leagues that include walks, The Cream automatically jumps up about 40 spots on the draft board. In other leagues like 5×5, all it does is remove another opportunity for The Cream to use those steriod-enhanced biceps to drive another one over the fence (The Cream = BB +10%).

Playing in the AL Central is another improvement for The Cream. The division scored 500 more runs in 2008 than the NL West did. In 2008, the Royals put up 50 more runs than the Giants, and the 2007 Giants put up about equal to the 2008 Royals (683 runs scored versus 691 runs scored).  In general, The Cream will be going to a better team in terms of offensive production compared to the one he played for in 2007 (The Cream = R +5%).

Finally, we can’t forget that The Cream is 44. Not Randy Johnson old, but almost. Playing DH helps him tremendously on the fatigue gradient, but you have to figure that his overall numbers drop by about 5% from 2007, a similar decrease to annual averages from 2004-2007. We’ve included that in our calculations prior to the assumptions above (The Cream = Overall, -5%)

As a result, below are The Cream’s projected 2009 stats based on assumptions above:

3) What other factors must be considered when The Cream is available to you at #125?

There is the inevitable can-I-draft-this-ignorant-cheating (but did he cheat?)-asshole? element, here. CAPS LOCK CARL couldn’t. I know that for a fact. But it’s hard to deny that he would be a deal if he dropped beyond the 10th round in a 10-team league. He even comes in with OF eligibility while playing DH, for a bit more flexibility than a guy like David Ortiz.

You also have to consider league type. In a points league, The Cream is incredibly valuable simply because of the walks factor. Performance in all leagues would be enhanced by the fact that he is playing DH. In a regular 5×5 league, his value certainly decreases, but not too far below Guerrero and Dye as evidenced above.

Last but not least, has The Cream disintegrated further than we’ve estimated above? Is his production down more than 5% with well over a year away from the game? Are there any other performance enhancing drugs that The Cream can get his hands on? Is the drive still there, now that he has tainted baseball record books across the board and yet remains in contention for the most-hated-athlete-alive award, falling just short of A-Rod at present, and just ahead of Michael Vick? All of these could significantly impact his output in 2009.

Nonetheless, by my calculations, if The Cream signed a $10M one-year deal with the Royals tomorrow, he immediately becomes a #15-20 ranked OF in mixed leagues. Meaning that in leagues with three OFs, he is definitely a starter and a valuable one.

So would you draft him? Where?

If you’re the KC Royals, do you sign him? Under what conditions?

CAPS LOCK CARL

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